July 2025 has gotten off to a sluggish begin at Walt Disney World. For the third 12 months in a row, July 4th vacation weekend crowd ranges had been “surprisingly” low, and wait occasions haven’t picked up a lot since. This shares knowledge for the slowest days & weeks of the complete 12 months, and discusses causes for shorter traces throughout what was a peak interval.
There have been headlines suggesting it is a “shock” or “stunning,” nevertheless it actually shouldn’t be. No weeks within the first half of July 2025 are on our Finest & Worst Weeks at Walt Disney World in 2025-2026. In our Information to Independence Day 2025 at Walt Disney World, we equally started by indicating that the vacation weekend is now not actually busy.
On the contrary, we said that it was a “near-certainty” that the vacation weekend wouldn’t be dangerous. That it merely wouldn’t evaluate to 2019 or earlier, again when the parks had been actually busy. We nonetheless anticipated increased crowd ranges than the final two years by advantage of the July 4th falling on a Friday and Walt Disney World providing attractive reductions versus overly aggressive blockouts. As a substitute, the vacation and past have been even slower than anticipated…
Suffice to say, the slower begin to the primary half of July 2025 was foreseeable, however to not this extent. Final month, we lined a few of the causes for this dynamic in Why Summer time is the New Low Crowds Season at Disney World. I’m not going to rehash all of that, however those self same causes apply equally to Independence Day. Right here’s a listing of fast hits for individuals who need the rundown:
- Epic Universe (negligible affect)
- Worldwide Journey Pullback (1% to 1.5% affect)
- Financial Uncertainty (no affect)
- Starlight Delays (no affect)
- Shifting Schedules (main affect)
- Excessive Warmth & Humidity (reasonable to main affect)
- Shorter Park Hours (some affect)
- No Particular Occasions (some affect)
- Minimal Mitigation (some affect)
What this publish goes to handle is simply how low wait occasions have been within the first half of July 2025. Then we’re going to supply just a few extra explanations as to why this month–particularly Independence Day–has gotten slower at Disney.
As earlier than, any principle that may be contradicted by increased crowds in the previous couple of months or the subsequent few months is off the desk. That means that increased costs, fewer perks, and the corporate’s repute don’t clarify the decrease summer season crowds pattern. Figured this was price a reminder as Walt Disney World simply launched October by way of December reductions.
Not solely are the brand new reductions typically worse than final 12 months, however availability is much more restricted. Occupancy doesn’t equal attendance, nevertheless it’s positive wanting prefer it’s going to be a powerful vacation season. This isn’t to say Walt Disney World doesn’t have a pricing drawback. It does as we’ve mentioned in numerous posts, together with Is Walt Disney World Too Costly for Center Class Individuals? However pricing doesn’t clarify why summer season, particularly, continues to see its year-over-year wait occasions lower.
Anyway, let’s flip to the month-to-date wait occasions knowledge for July 2025, courtesy of thrill-data (ditto the above stats)…
July 2025 Wait Instances
July has been the slowest month of the 12 months so far, with a mean wait time of 27 minutes and 1/10 crowd degree. Previous to this month, the slowest month of the 12 months was final month, when June had a mean wait time of 31 minutes and a crowd degree of three/10. Within the final 12 months, the one slower months have been final September and October, which had been dragged down by hurricane scares.
The primary week of July has been the slowest of the year-to-date, with a 26 minute common and crowd degree of 1/10. This simply barely edged out mid-June (27 minutes, 1/10). The final week of June remains to be the busiest of summer season, and is unlikely to be surpassed within the second half of July and August 2025, primarily based on each present developments and previous precedent. These are about as near patterns as we get for summer season journey, and you may in all probability count on one thing related in Summer time 2026.
As at all times, that’s an common, which nonetheless signifies that hour-plus waits (and even 90+ minutes!) are potential for the headliners at peak occasions. They’re simply offset by 5-10 minute waits for decrease profile sights. There have additionally been loads of days which were busier than that common.
On the “increased” finish of the spectrum, July 8-10 had 30-32 minute waits for 3/10 to 4/10 crowd ranges. In contrast, July 2-6 has been the slowest stretch of the month-to-date, with wait occasions bottoming out at 21 minutes (1/10 crowds) and by no means exceeding 26 minutes (on common) for that stretch. Sunday, July 6 has been the slowest day of the complete 12 months up to now. (If historical past is any indication, it’ll be surpassed in mid-August.)
Not all parks had been equally uncrowded over Independence Day. As is at all times the case, Magic Kingdom and EPCOT overperformed. These two parks being busiest is especially unsurprising since they’re the one two with particular Fourth of July fireworks exhibits.
If something, wait occasions knowledge from these two parks doesn’t inform the total story of ‘seems like’ crowds as a result of persons are staking out prime spots for fireworks and simply typically having fun with the patriotic environment. It is a story that’ll repeat itself over the approaching months at Magic Kingdom within the evenings as soon as Starlight debuts–large congestion alongside the parade route, however walk-on rides.
Animal Kingdom and Hollywood Studios had been sluggish by any subjective or goal measure. Animal Kingdom had its lowest common wait time–23 minutes–of the 12 months on July 4, 2025. Hollywood Studios had a mean wait time of twenty-two minutes on each July 3 and July 6, which is extraordinarily low for DHS. It’s normally the park with the very best common wait occasions at Walt Disney World!
Not that it’s any shock at this level, however weekends are much less busy than weekdays. It is a pattern that’s a number of years operating, however is amplified throughout summer season and minimized as soon as Social gathering Season begins. If we’re trend-lines, the drop from June to July 2025 has been the largest of the complete 12 months to this point. June barely much less busy than Might, which was barely much less busy than April (one minute month-to-month decreases in each circumstances).
The drop-off from June to July at present stands at 4 minutes. That’s fairly vital, nevertheless it in all probability received’t final. Digging deeper into the information, final July began equally sluggish–particularly as contrasted with June. Nevertheless, wait occasions elevated within the ultimate two weeks of the month, with the final week and into early August seeing a slight spike.
Final 12 months, July was 2 minutes slower than June and August was 2 minutes slower than July. That’s typical seasonality, and we must always anticipate a repeat of that. What we must always not count on is October to be the slowest month of the 12 months once more–that was depressed as a result of aforementioned hurricanes.
With wait occasions knowledge out of the way in which, let’s discuss potential theories as to why July 2025 hasn’t been busy at Walt Disney World…
Residual DAS Influence
Disney overhauled Incapacity Entry Service (DAS) at Walt Disney World final 12 months, with adjustments taking impact on Might 20, 2024. In accordance with the corporate, the adjustments had been due largely to abuse, misuse, and proliferation of this system’s use–with issuances of DAS tripling from 2019 to final 12 months. (See Incapacity Entry Service (DAS) Modifications at Walt Disney World FAQ.)
We’ve written quite a bit in regards to the affect of the DAS adjustments on wait occasions at Walt Disney World. Most lately simply final month in Is Lightning Lane Multi Move Nonetheless “Price It” at Disney World? Considered one of our details with this has been that standby traces are shorter and sooner transferring, with wait occasions being decrease year-over-year as a direct results of the DAS crackdown. Even when attendance is precisely the identical, crowd ranges (as mirrored in wait occasions) could be decrease than the identical dates final 12 months consequently.
On condition that, I’m not likely positive how I missed this as a possible clarification final time. Most likely as a result of it’s been virtually 14 months for the reason that adjustments?! Regardless, the prolonged DAS eligibility interval means year-over-year crowd comparisons are nonetheless displaying residual results of the DAS adjustments in June and July; it received’t be till August that the DAS adjustments are absolutely ‘labored by way of’ the system and never skewing YoY stats. That is nonetheless an enormous one, albeit to not the identical extent because it was in Might or earlier.
Altering Journey Preferences
The economic system is one thing that inevitably comes up within the feedback to posts like this, and we beforehand identified how Disney’s CFO stated they must be “sensible about pricing,” particularly on the decrease finish of the market the place customers are “feeling stress.” Because of this, the corporate has held pricing regular and even supplied extra reductions, whereas concentrating worth will increase amongst premium packages or throughout high-demand dates.
Past that, it’s been the case for some time that not each American is experiencing the identical economic system. There are conflicting statistics which have befuddled economists on the subject of strong shopper spending, which they’ve simply type of hand waved away as YOLO spending, or attributed to customers saying one factor however behaving otherwise.
None of that basically issues right here, as there’s key knowledge that tells a reasonably conclusive story. The TSA reported screening almost 3.1 million vacationers on Sunday, June 22, marking the only busiest day within the company’s historical past. June 27 and June 29 now rank because the seventh and eighth busiest days respectively in TSA historical past, pushing 2025 to say six of the company’s prime 10 busiest days on document. Quantity didn’t decelerate over Independence Day, because the TSA screened an estimated 18.5 million passengers over the vacation interval.
The underside line is that no matter points would possibly exist with the U.S. economic system, the American shopper remains to be spending freely and going locations for summer season trip. It’s definitely not impacting journey as an entire, though it might have an effect on what customers are doing as soon as arriving at their locations. (MCO’s quantity really is down year-over-year, however nonetheless properly above 2019–however the airport added a brand new terminal, so it’s not precisely apples to apples.)
One method to reconcile all of that is altering journey preferences. This was touched upon within the feedback to the earlier publish in regards to the summer season slowdown, however bears emphasizing right here. It’s probably that Individuals in increased earnings brackets are avoiding theme parks throughout the hotter months as a result of they’re much less pleasurable and there’s higher consciousness of this.
In different phrases, even aggressive reductions are usually not sufficient to entice the higher center class and above to go to Walt Disney World throughout the summer season, as a result of pricing isn’t what’s protecting them away within the first place. Not solely this, however extra mobility and alternate options have made cruises and worldwide journeys extra standard amongst prosperous Individuals.
On the different finish of the spectrum, there’s the good outdoor. We dwell comparatively near the seaside, and our Independence Day weekend traditions are doing Disneyland and one of many seaside cities. Visitors and congestion has gotten progressively worse in these areas, to the purpose that over-tourism is changing into an extremely scorching matter amongst locals. This July is busier than I’ve ever seen it on the seaside, and I’d’ve stated the identical factor about final 12 months.
Though we don’t have firsthand expertise with state and U.S. Nationwide Parks this summer season, I’ve heard related tales there amongst associates–with greater crowds and extra competitors for park reservations (hardly distinctive to Walt Disney World–you want a reservation to see timber now, too!)
It’s unclear to me whether or not that is American customers “buying and selling down” for cheaper summer season holidays, or just a matter of individuals going the place it’s cooler. We did Disneyland and the seaside on back-to-back days, and the coast was about 10 levels cooler than the parks–and Disneyland isn’t almost as scorching as Walt Disney World.
Annual Move Blockouts
As you would possibly recall, this pattern actually began in 2023 when early July was downright useless at Walt Disney World. It was such a scorching matter that it drew a proof from CEO Bob Iger, who attributed the slowness to an exhaustion of pent-up demand in Florida as an entire and unseasonably dangerous climate. He wasn’t flawed…however he additionally wasn’t utterly right.
The large “drawback” was that Walt Disney World received overly-aggressive with ticket blockouts, with each most Annual Passholders and those that bought low cost Florida resident tickets and others prevented from visiting the parks over Independence Day. We all know these are the first causes for the slowdown then, as a result of the exhaustion of pent-up demand and scorching summer season climate weren’t simply confined to these particular dates when crowd ranges plummeted–they had been throughout the board dynamics.
We’ve since drawn consideration to Annual Move blockouts as a predictor of crowds on a number of events. Mainly, each time each the Pixie Move and the Pirate Move–two reasonably priced admission choices for locals–are blocked out, you possibly can count on native turnout to be depressed. And after the blockouts elevate, there’s normally localized (get it?) pent-up demand. The large distinction between summer season and different occasions of 12 months when this occurs is that there are sometimes sufficient out-of-state vacationers to offset the blockouts throughout peak vacation weeks. Not a lot in the summertime.
Our robust suspicion is that there’s a disproportionate variety of Pirate and Pixie Mud Annual Passes in circulation, largely as a result of they’re the most affordable choices. On the very least, increased visitor-volume locals usually tend to have these APs, so that they skew crowds greater than the opposite passes. Walt Disney World doesn’t launch statistical breakdowns of its AP inhabitants, so that is solely principle.
Nevertheless, it’s additionally corroborated by crowds. Each time these passes are blocked out past their regular weekends, it exhibits up in wait occasions knowledge. We’ve additionally seen this forward of massive spring break blockouts, as locals flood the parks earlier than and after their blockout durations versus the ‘peak’ week of spring break, which is blocked.
There are numerous different examples like this, with a rush of locals “getting their Disney repair” earlier than a blockout after which decrease crowds throughout it. It additionally occurs yearly in January when the blockouts elevate, and occurred final 12 months for Labor Day. This clarification is well-supported by three years of information of Independence Day, which is why crowds had been a lot decrease July 2-6, 2025. Despite the fact that TSA knowledge exhibits that to be a peak journey time, it wasn’t sufficient to offset overly aggressive blockouts of locals.
In the end, my robust suspicion is that the final issue–Annual Passes–is the result determinative one on the subject of July 2-6, 2025 having unprecedentedly low crowd ranges. That in the event you took the precise vacationer attendance of Independence Day weekend and added the common Annual Passholder attendance for this summer season, the quantity would come out wanting pretty near regular Summer time 2025 days at Walt Disney World.
However once more, “regular” by Summer time 2025 requirements remains to be a shadow of what issues had been like earlier than 2016. Even after that, Independence Day continued to be very busy at Walt Disney World for a minimum of a few years. It was not a peak season vacation like Easter, Thanksgiving, Christmas, New 12 months’s Eve, and so forth., nevertheless it additionally wasn’t reasonable–like Memorial Day or Labor Day. It additionally doesn’t clarify why different dates this month–corresponding to July 12, 2025–have had ~26 minute common wait occasions and 1/10 crowd ranges.
It’ll be attention-grabbing to see whether or not there’s a bounce-back in crowds in direction of the top of this month and in early August. Normally, there’s a second spike on the finish of July, which we’ve attributed to ‘final hurrah’ summer season vacationers taking journeys earlier than faculty goes again into session. That’s more likely to occur, however our expectation remains to be that July 2025 will likely be slower than June, and August 2025 will likely be slower than July. September and October are the massive wildcards–the latter is sort of sure to see a year-over-year bounceback, however September might as soon as once more reclaim the crown because the slowest month of the 12 months.
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Your Ideas
Why do you assume month-to-date July 2025 crowds at Walt Disney World have been below-average? Have been you within the parks over Independence Day or within the week-plus since? What has been your expertise with wait occasions and congestion? Any observations about attendance developments throughout the fall months that observe this summer season dip? Listening to your suggestions about your experiences is each attention-grabbing to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas or questions beneath within the feedback!
