Excellent news! The Crowds Capybara (aka “Bay Lake Beatrice”) noticed her shadow, predicting six or so weeks of low wait instances at Walt Disney World. With Spring Break within the rearview mirror and summer season continues to be one other month-plus away, it is a good forecast by the rodent–as we’re getting into “Shoulder Season.”
This crowd report shares wait instances information, which dates ended up being the worst of the season, and our on-the-ground observations about congestion and features. Plus, predictions on attendance ranges subsequent month and all through Summer season 2025, in addition to how the opening week and months of Epic Universe at Common Orlando may influence Walt Disney World.
We’ll begin by looking again on the final month-plus of Spring Break season at Walt Disney World. Particularly, we’ll have a look at what our Spring Break 2025 Crowd Calendar for Walt Disney World received proper and incorrect with its predictions, and simply how dangerous Easter ended up being.
The excellent news is that the broad contours of the forecast ended up being correct. Our prediction was twin peaks of heavy crowds the week of Orange County’s recess and one other virtually a month later main as much as Easter, with considerably of a valley in early April. We had been overly aggressive predicting the beginning of Spring Break, however crowds had been heavy beginning March 17-29 and once more April 12-19. In each instances, peak crowds began a pair days after our forecast window and ended 1-2 earlier.
Equally notable had been the decrease factors. March 30 by April 11 noticed low to average crowds, fairly much like what we’d count on through the upcoming Shoulder Season. That’s what a late Easter causes–a later second spike in Spring Break crowds, and likewise quasi-Shoulder Season in between.
Save for some Spring Break stragglers, ‘Shoulder Season’ has roughly already arrived at this level. We don’t count on one other excessive crowds week till October 2025, and even above-average weeks are going to be few and much between for the following a number of months.
As all the time, what’s lined in these “crowd” experiences is definitely posted wait time information that’s pulled from My Disney Expertise and compiled into graphs for monitoring and evaluating varied days, weeks, months, and years. Rather a lot may be gleaned from posted wait instances, nevertheless it’s not essentially conclusive of in-park congestion or crowds.
If you wish to perceive extra about these experiences and crowd calendars, their strengths and limitations, or addressing misconceptions about crowds, see our listing of the “High” 10 Methods Walt Disney World Followers Are Incorrect About Crowds. That’s value studying if you would like a greater understanding of WDW attendance patterns, seems like crowds vs. wait instances, and some pretty straightforward methods to “beat” the crowds.
In brief, wait instances are an imperfect measure of Walt Disney World’s uncooked attendance or crowds. Earlier than going deeper into the dialogue of crowds, let’s dig into the information and have a look at Walt Disney World wait instances. As all the time, all graphs and stats are courtesy of thrill-data.com:
We’ll begin with the month-to-month numbers for Walt Disney World as an entire.
For the reason that lows of final September and October, Walt Disney World has gotten progressively. That may look like excellent news for the parks themselves, till you distinction the numbers with the identical months on a year-over-year foundation. December 2023 by March 2024 had been extremely robust, main us to query whether or not we had been seeing a reverberation of revenge journey at Walt Disney World.
That didn’t final. Crowds fell every month beginning in April, bottoming out through the fall low season (October was one thing of an anomaly as a consequence of hurricanes). Crowds have risen since, however to nowhere close to the identical diploma because the earlier vacation season and winter. Spring Break is a really related story–wait instances are down noticeably on a year-over-year foundation for the final two months.
Final 12 months, the common for March was a 40 minute wait time or 7/10 crowd degree. March 2025 noticed a 36 minute common for five/10 crowds. April was truly an identical each years: 34 minute waits for 4/10 crowd ranges. These comparisons aren’t apples to apples since Easter was in March final 12 months, which means we’d count on April 2025 to be busier. Additionally, the month isn’t over but, and the slowest days are nonetheless forward. Which means that even with Easter, April 2025 may find yourself being slower than final 12 months.
Talking of which, above is a have a look at the weekly crowd ranges. The 6 bars on the far proper are what we’ll be taking a look at. The final bar is the present week (by April 27, 2025) and reveals the Shoulder Season slowdown already in progress. Previous to that’s Easter, which is all the time the height week of Spring Break.
The earlier two weeks are the aforementioned ‘valley’ in early April 2025 after Southern faculty districts went on recess however previous to Easter week crowds heating up. As you’ll see within the every day numbers, these yellow bars considerably overstate crowd ranges throughout these weeks.
The 2 bars earlier than that had been when Orange County and different faculty districts in Florida (to not point out the remainder of the US) went on break. Word that none of those weeks had been 10/10 crowd ranges. The primary two weeks, in mid-to-late March, had been 6/10 ranges. Easter was “solely” 8/10, which can appear heavy–however that was the slowest Easter week we’ve seen since 2021.
Zooming in additional, we come to the resort-wide every day numbers for Walt Disney World.
The week main as much as Easter was unsurprisingly busy, with a little bit of a lull (comparatively) for the vacation weekend itself. No enormous shock there, as crowds heading house earlier than the weekend has more and more grow to be the pattern. That is pushed by a lot of components, however principally greater costs.
We additionally wish to draw your consideration to the few inexperienced bars between the height weeks of Spring Break. These are 1/10 to three/10 crowd ranges the final two days of March and first week of April 2025. That was a good time to go to (I communicate from expertise!) and is value remembering for the following time Easter is so late. So file that data away till 2028, I suppose.
For these questioning how Walt Disney World’s wait instances evaluate to Common Orlando, the pattern is about the identical, simply from a decrease baseline. As Comcast has reported on numerous earnings calls over the past 12 months, they’ve seen a pointy slowdown within the submit pent-up demand period–worse than Walt Disney World.
To that time, Comcast simply reported its earnings for the primary three months of the 12 months on April 24, 2025, and attendance dropped at Common’s theme parks in the US. Comcast reported that theme parks income was down 5.2% year-over-year, to $1.876 billion. The corporate attributed the decline partly as a consequence of January’s wildfires, which compelled the momentary closure of Common Studios Hollywood. Adjusted EBITDA within the theme parks section additionally was down for the quarter by 32.1% year-over-year.
Whereas the wildfires unquestionably performed a job, there’s additionally this attention-grabbing pattern of each Comcast and Disney attributing decreases to externalities. The trend-line can be down at Common Orlando, so this isn’t simply a matter of the wildfires. In Common’s protection, there may be virtually actually a ‘calm earlier than the storm’ with folks suspending visits previous to the opening of Epic Universe.
However we’re additionally anticipating the primary few months of Epic Universe to underperform expectations, with softer bookings than initially anticipated. We’ll have a extra in-depth have a look at this quickly, however simply to be clear, it’s not trigger for long-term concern or an indication of disinterest in Epic Universe. Such a phenomenon isn’t unusual with main new openings, and Common ought to virtually actually see a lift within the coming quarter because of Epic Universe. That’s type of a given, although, when including a brand new theme park to the combo.
It’s additionally value mentioning that the only greatest rationalization for the year-over-year drop in wait instances at Walt Disney World is the foremost adjustments to its queueing insurance policies in late Might 2024. Wait instances haven’t been as excessive since, even on comparably congested days. And as a reminder, all the above measures are of posted standby wait instances, which act as a proxy for crowds–they completely don’t congestion.
We defined why Walt Disney World is seeing decrease wait instances throughout the board in Right here’s Why Standby Traces and Lightning Lanes Are Transferring Sooner at Walt Disney World and have mentioned it elsewhere. That’s actually value studying if you wish to perceive the rising disconnect between ‘seems like’ crowds and wait instances.
The underside line is that the DAS adjustments and, to a lesser extent, swap from Genie+ to Lightning Lane Multi-Cross are having a big influence. It ought to go with out saying that there are controversies, downsides, and unlucky realities to the above. However the enchancment to the movement of strains–standby and Lightning Lanes–in addition to decrease wait instances can be plain.
Turning to on-the-ground observations, I’ve spent a whole lot of time at Walt Disney World because the begin of Spring Break season. This included Orange County’s Spring Break, the height week of Easter, and the bottom degree week in between in the beginning of April.
As a common matter, I used to be pleasantly shocked by crowds. My most adverse expertise got here with making an attempt to make use of the Skyliner from Artwork of Animation to do Early Entry at EPCOT and Disney’s Hollywood Studios. As regular, mornings had been fairly tough at DHS throughout busier dates (something 5/10 or above). Not precisely a brand new growth, although. Unsurprisingly, I additionally encountered excessive demand for Guardians of the Galaxy: Cosmic Rewind throughout complete discipline testing. (Outcomes of which can be nonetheless coming quickly!)
My most optimistic experiences all got here at Magic Kingdom. (Effectively, Animal Kingdom was additionally effective, however that’s to be anticipated.) There have been a number of days and nights at Magic Kingdom that had been a lot better than anticipated, and the expertise actually benefited from the 11 p.m. park hours extensions (though these had been rarer than final 12 months). On the whole, I virtually all the time perceived decrease crowds at Magic Kingdom than the precise crowd ranges mirrored. That’s a pleasant feeling, and one that usually isn’t the case at Magic Kingdom. (Granted, I averted Fortunately Ever After, so I by no means skilled that exodus.)
Most curiously, my notion of Easter crowds was a lot better than anticipated. Truthfully, I by no means would’ve guessed that week had 8/10 crowd ranges whereas visiting the parks. I used to be absolutely ready to do a write-up about an unexpectedly sluggish Easter week based mostly on my on-the-ground expertise, and was shocked that the degrees had been truly 8/10. A part of that was getting fortunate (or quite, selecting accurately) my park visits every day, however crowds felt pretty average.
If something, I might’ve guessed that mid-March was worse than Easter week based mostly alone observations. Each had been unquestionably busier than final 12 months’s late summer season/early fall low season, however they didn’t really feel as dangerous because the worst weeks of winter. It in all probability helped that the climate felt extremely comfy by spring requirements, and that may make up for lots. I’ll fortunately take a 6/10 day with nice temperatures than a 1/10 day with triple-digit “seems like” warmth and humidity.
Level being, wait instances usually don’t inform the complete story of crowds at Walt Disney World. And conversely, anecdotal experiences of crowds and congestion are variable, which is why they’re unreliable. Others who visited throughout Easter week may ‘pontificate’ within the feedback with horror tales about simply how busy it was. That doesn’t make both of us incorrect–we simply had totally different experiences. Walt Disney World is a giant place; it occurs.
Wanting ahead, Walt Disney World is now out of the woods with the worst of Spring Break. We’ll have one other replace to our 2025 Walt Disney World Crowd Calendars very quickly, however the backside line is that there are only a few ‘pink flag’ dates within the coming months.
At this level, it’s mainly simply what’s at present on the ESPN Large World of Sports activities calendar. The following couple of weekends, there are Cheerleading Championships, Cheerleading Worlds and Dance Worlds, and the Summit occasions for a similar. All of these occasions happen the following couple of weeks and will trigger a slight bounce-back when it comes to crowds.
These are main dance and cheerleading competitions that enhance attendance on the parks and occupancy on the inns, normally the All Stars and Coronado Springs. Nonetheless, the influence on crowd ranges within the parks isn’t important as an entire–and tends to be overblown based mostly on anecdotal experiences, which may be fairly dangerous. (Which means that you possibly can suppose they’re a enormous adverse for those who’re caught in line for Haunted Mansion behind a bunch of 100 cheerleaders…otherwise you may by no means see a single participant throughout a weeklong journey.)
Other than these cheer and dance occasions, that are value bringing to your consideration however not you fretting over, the excellent news is that it’s Shoulder Season. That is the interval between two heavier seasons. I suppose that’s as a result of the shoulders are under the “peak” of the physique, or the top. Through which case, maybe we must always begin referring to September as butt-season? It has a sure understated stupidity to it.
Anyway, Walt Disney World’s attendance patterns are largely dictated by faculty breaks. Because of this, far fewer company in Disney’s core demo go to shortly after or earlier than a serious break. One main break simply occurred, and one other doesn’t begin for one more month-plus.
Final 12 months’s Shoulder Season ran from roughly April 15 till the Friday earlier than Memorial Day. Each single week in Might of final 12 months noticed under common crowds (together with these coinciding with cheer and dance occasions), with the three weeks main as much as Memorial Day being the slowest and having 2/10 to three/10 crowd ranges. Crowds rebounded the final week however had been nonetheless barely under common.
It’s not possible to say with any diploma of confidence whether or not the 2025 Shoulder Season might be slower than final 12 months. I’m inclined to foretell that it’ll. Final 12 months, Walt Disney World received aggressive in releasing offers to forestall a collapse in crowds (as occurred in Might 2023). For every of the final two years, reductions have been launched alongside an analogous timeframe, and with comparable high quality/amount for this time of 12 months.
On condition that, and the truth that crowd ranges have been down just about throughout the board as soon as adjusted for Easter, it appears protected to foretell a slower Shoulder Season than final 12 months. There’s additionally the truth that completely nothing that counts as a serious draw to Walt Disney World is debuting between now and Memorial Day.
Accordingly, we’d in all probability count on to see extra 1/10 to three/10 days than final 12 months, and fewer 4/10 and 5/10 days. It in all probability gained’t be a dramatic distinction, nevertheless it may be sufficient that we are able to name Might 2025 the low season versus Shoulder Season.
Wanting ahead, the opening of Epic Universe is Might 22, 2025. Sometimes, the Thursday earlier than Memorial Day is commonly when crowds begin to decide up, which is why Common Orlando selected to open Epic Universe on that day. So far as how the opening of Epic Universe will influence crowds at Walt Disney World, it’s tough to say–there’s not precisely a ton of precedent for a way new competing theme parks alter attendance at Walt Disney World.
One factor to notice is that paid previews of Epic Universe have been underway for a few week, and have to this point had zero influence on Walt Disney World attendance. Granted, they had been introduced final minute and the eligibility pool is proscribed (for now), however to this point, these haven’t even been a blip on the radar for EPCOT and Animal Kingdom (the 2 parks most probably to be impacted).
Our greatest guess is that opening weekend of Epic Universe might be slower than a standard Memorial Day weekend at Walt Disney World, as Common sucks up all of the oxygen within the room. Many locals have bought tickets and booked resort stays for Epic Universe that weekend, and vacationers are unsurprisingly doing likewise. This dynamic will exist all through the summer season, nevertheless it’ll be most pronounced by Monday, Might 26, 2025.
Opposite to traditional knowledge, we don’t anticipate a lot of a noticeable influence on Walt Disney World attendance or wait instances all through Summer season 2025 as a consequence of Epic Universe, save for at EPCOT and Animal Kingdom. We do count on decrease crowds than final 12 months–and it’s not like Summer season 2024 was busy within the first place–however that principally has to do with financial uncertainty and plummeting worldwide journey.
The worst influence of that can coincide with the opening of Epic Universe, however correlation doesn’t equal causation. (It gained’t cease many followers eager to see Disney “fail” from drawing the conclusion.) It additionally doesn’t assist that Walt Disney World doesn’t have any blockbuster new additions opening in Summer season 2025. The one large factor is Starlight Night time Parade, and there’s no opening date for that but, which means it’s wanting more and more like a July debut. That’ll enhance nighttime crowds in Magic Kingdom, however is unlikely to maneuver the needle on posted wait instances at points of interest or non-local attendance.
We will see, although. Maybe Bay Lake Beatrice is incorrect and crowds will decide up in mid-Might and keep elevated all summer season lengthy. Or perhaps it’s not simply six slower weeks, however extra like 6 slower months. Crowd Capybaras are about as dependable as crowd calendars today, so it may go both approach. It’ll be an attention-grabbing saga to observe unfold, and our greatest guess based mostly on the elevated sense of urgency with reductions is that that is going to be a protracted interval of low to average attendance.
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YOUR THOUGHTS
Are you visiting Walt Disney World throughout Shoulder Season between Spring Break and Summer season 2025? Have you ever visited previously through the month of Might? Had been you within the parks over the previous couple weeks? For those who visited throughout Easter week, what was your notion of crowds? Pleasantly shocked or did you discover it to be extremely busy? Ideas on the influence of Epic Universe? Do you agree or disagree with our evaluation? Any questions we might help you reply? Listening to your suggestions–even while you disagree with us–is each attention-grabbing to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas under within the feedback!
