Walt Disney World is having a sluggish summer season. One other one. This doesn’t imply that the parks are useless or ghost cities. Calling the parks empty is an exaggeration. Nonetheless, attendance has decreased noticeably, wait instances are down, ADR availability is ample, and the corporate continues to tug new levers to entice locals and followers again to the parks. We dig into the info and supply our theories for the summer season slowdown.
The one factor summer season hasn’t been, although, is peak season. Not for a very long time. Again on June 26, 2017 we first printed: Summer time Is Not Peak Season at Walt Disney World. That defined how, regardless of the standard knowledge that Memorial Day by way of Labor Day is the busiest stretch of the 12 months in Florida, summer season crowds weren’t as unhealthy as prior to now. It provided a number of potential theories explaining the why of this.
Final 12 months, we adopted that up with Summer time (Nonetheless) Is NOT Excessive Crowds Season at Walt Disney World. If you need a recap of 2016-2018, 2019, 2020, 2021-2022, and 2023-2024 (all listed individually as a result of they’ve their very own distinctive wrinkles), so the primary half of that publish. It explains the Star Wars Hunch, “Revenge Journey,” overly aggressive pricing, and extra. We’re revisiting the subject once more in 2025 as a result of this 12 months is as soon as once more its personal new ‘period’ and crowds have been even decrease to this point in Summer time 2025.
You would possibly discover that the titles of those posts have ‘advanced’ over time. The primary was that summer season is just not peak season. The second was that it’s not excessive crowds season. This one is that summer season is the new decrease crowds season. None of that’s coincidental. This pattern began a few decade in the past, however contrasting crowd ranges from these summers with at this time makes them look downright packed by comparability. (It is because general Walt Disney World attendance nonetheless doesn’t even strategy its peak 2018-2019 ranges.)
Actually, Summer time 2025 has been so sluggish to this point that I used to be tempted to make use of the phrase “low season” within the title. After I first began engaged on this, there was a powerful case to be made that this summer season was proving to be the low season. The final week forged doubt on that, and even when it hadn’t, there’s additionally the truth that August and September will probably be slower than June and July. Can we actually have a 4-month low season stretch?
From my perspective, the reply isn’t any. Low season signifies the bottom of the low. Not solely that, but when summer season is the low season, the “shoulder season” earlier than it begins to lose which means. So as an alternative we’ll follow cumbersome verbiage to explain what summer season has develop into. It’s undoubtedly not peak season, but it surely additionally isn’t low season (but). It’s someplace in between. A brand new elbow season, if you’ll.
Though June was the least-busy month of 2025, it’ll seemingly be surpassed by the subsequent 3 months. Not solely that, however loads of different busier (as an entire) months do have decrease lows; they’re simply accompanied by greater highs to stability out averages. June has a tighter vary to crowd ranges, with out a lot in the best way of spikes or sharp drops. Maybe we should always name summer season the “persistently uncomfortable season,” which is obscure but 100% correct.
Earlier than we focus on the potential explanations for why summer season is (but once more) slower at Walt Disney World, let’s check out wait instances. As at all times, all graphs and stats are courtesy of thrill-data.com.
June 2025 Crowds
June has been the slowest month of the 12 months up to now, with a median wait time of 31 minutes and a crowd stage of two/10. As at all times, that’s an common, which nonetheless implies that hour-plus waits (and even 90+ minutes!) are potential for the headliners at peak instances. They’re simply offset by 5-10 minute waits for decrease profile points of interest.
There have additionally been loads of days which were busier than that common. June 2-3 had 36-37 minute waits for five/10 and 6/10 crowd ranges; June 23-24 had 35 minute averages for five/10 crowds. Against this, June 12-15 was the slowest stretch of the month, with wait instances bottoming out at 22 minutes (1/10 crowds) and by no means exceeding half-hour (on common) for that stretch.
To the purpose about extra constant crowd ranges throughout summer season, it’s price mentioning that whilst June ranks 6 (out of 6) for crowd ranges to this point in 2025, it nonetheless solely had two really ‘useless’ days. Actually, if you happen to zoom out additional, there wasn’t a single day in June that was among the many least busy 30 days within the final 12 months. There have been many dates from final August by way of December that beat June (though hurricane scares performed a job in September and October).
Not that it’s any shock at this level, however weekends are much less busy than weekdays. This can be a pattern that’s a number of years working, however is amplified throughout summer season and minimized as soon as Get together Season begins. As an entire, June 2025 was barely much less busy than Might, which was barely much less busy than April (one minute month-to-month decreases in each circumstances).
Should you’re making an attempt to trend-spot or time a trip subsequent summer season, the final week of June was the busiest and the second week of the month (main as much as Father’s Day) was least busy. These are about as near patterns as we get for summer season journey, and you may most likely anticipate one thing comparable in June 2026. Apart from that, not likely a ton that’s price speaking about. Summer time is the least attention-grabbing season for crowds because it tends to be probably the most constant.
Earlier than we flip to potential explanations, let’s preemptively rule out something that falls aside when inspecting the heavy crowds over Easter, or the potential for year-over-year will increase throughout October, excessive crowds at Thanksgiving, Christmas, New 12 months’s, or in Winter 2026.
Mainly, any principle that may be contradicted by greater crowds in the previous couple of months or the subsequent few months is off the desk (e.g. greater costs, fewer perks, Disney’s declining popularity). This may increasingly appear apparent, but it surely’s nonetheless vital as a result of discussing attendance has develop into a loaded subject with many followers who wish to see their very own narratives strengthened. Should you consider that Disney is doomed or failing due to X or Y, that’s actually your prerogative, however X or Y as an evidence form of falls aside when crowds get loopy–and they’re going to, later this 12 months.
With that out of the best way, let’s discuss theories as to why summer season is slower now than it was again within the day…
Epic Universe
We would as effectively begin with the elephant within the room: Epic Universe. That is the place we start not as a result of I consider it’s the #1 rationalization for decrease crowds at Walt Disney World. However somewhat, as a result of that is the #1 rationale that many followers will proffer–particularly these desirous to see Disney “taken down a notch.”
My unpopular opinion is that Epic Universe has near no web affect on summer season crowds at Walt Disney World. It does undoubtedly have some affect on the margins, and there are numerous anecdotes (we’ve heard ’em!) about followers skipping Walt Disney World for Common this 12 months. That’s unquestionably occurring. Nonetheless, new guests are additionally being drawn to Orlando on account of Epic Universe and likewise visiting Walt Disney World because of this (the “rising tides lifts all ships” thesis).
It’s not even essential to get into all of these anecdotes and theories to find out which facet is “successful,” as a result of we now have information. As defined in our Epic Universe 2025 Crowd Calendar Predictions: Excessive Crowds Regardless of Low Attendance?!, Epic Universe ticket gross sales are low.
On a median day this summer season, Epic Universe is greeting fewer friends than Animal Kingdom. That’s not good. Whereas excessive wait instances typically mirror excessive attendance, they will additionally mirror low capability. That’s the true story of Epic Universe to this point: excessive wait instances on account of low throughput masking low attendance (bought all that?!).
We are able to additionally look to attend instances information for Common Orlando. The resort as an entire is about on par with final 12 months’s numbers, however if you happen to take a look at solely Islands of Journey and Common Studios Florida (the 2 parks open final summer season), they’re down in Summer time 2025 versus final 12 months. So both Epic Universe is cannibalizing attendance at Walt Disney World and Common Orlando (however disproportionately the latter), or there are higher explanations as to why each operators proceed the downtrend. In our view, it’s the latter.
Worldwide Journey
Through the most up-to-date earnings name, Disney CFO Hugh Johnston was requested if the home parks have seen a success to worldwide visitation (causes mentioned in Canadians Are Canceling Walt Disney World Holidays).
When it comes to the attendance, Johnston indicated that worldwide attendance on the home parks nonetheless has not gotten again to pre-COVID ranges (this isn’t a brand new growth), however it’s nonetheless within the double-digits. As for latest worldwide visitation, Walt Disney World and Disneyland have “seen a little bit of an affect” of roughly 1% to 1.5% declines.
What Disney expects going ahead is one thing just like that, however the firm factors out that it’s “greater than making up for it with home attendance–attendance on the parks has been terrific.” Extra broadly talking, information exhibits that demand from Canada has dropped sharply, and there are early indicators (surveys and statements from airways) suggesting an identical dynamic from Europe.
Nonetheless, as we mentioned within the aforementioned article about Canada (and Disney’s personal information reinforces), worldwide vacationers usually are not that important of a demographic for Walt Disney World. If each single worldwide customer stayed dwelling, it could be very noticeable–however that’s not even near what’s occurring. It’s a downtick of some share factors, at most.
It’s additionally unclear whether or not the worst of that is already within the rearview mirror. The Higher Orlando Aviation Authority simply launched stats for Might 2025, and so they’re illuminating. Worldwide passenger site visitors was up 9.3% for the month, whereas home passenger site visitors was down 4.2% for a mixed lower of two.6%. The rolling 12-month whole stands at 56.5 million annual passengers.
Worldwide site visitors now accounts for 14.6% of passengers at MCO, an all-time excessive, surpassing the earlier report from the summer season of 2019, with a median of over 22,500 worldwide passengers per day. In fact, MCO did add a brand new terminal, which has contributed to its record-setting run, however that was practically 3 years in the past at this level. Anybody who has handed by way of the legacy terminals within the final year-plus can inform you that MCO is insanely busy…just about on a regular basis!
Financial Uncertainty
Disney’s CFO indicated throughout final December’s earnings name that they must be “sensible about pricing,” particularly on the decrease finish of the market the place shoppers are “feeling stress.” (That is comparable sentiment to what quick meals chains and retailers have reported throughout their latest earnings calls.)
Johnston stated that Disney has tried to carry costs regular for lower-priced choices on the parks and that many of the worth will increase had been concentrated amongst premium packages or throughout high-demand dates. He added that the corporate desires to “faucet in to these households and construct the behavior of coming to Disneyland or Disney World, not one time, however a number of instances.”
All of this explains why Walt Disney World has gotten so aggressive with discounting this summer season. As we’ve reported at size elsewhere, you can get the most cost-effective Walt Disney World journey in July 2025 since not less than 2019. That’s form of loopy if you happen to understand how a lot base costs have exploded post-COVID. This can be a pattern we anticipate to proceed, with higher-occupancy winter months getting dearer and summer season additional reducing in 2026 and past.
On the similar time, we’ve repeatedly cited client confidence, financial nervousness, ongoing inflation, People being squeezed from each path, and extra as the explanation why Walt Disney World might see decreased attendance sooner or later. And but, the primary factor we maintain listening to on company earnings calls is how “resilient” the American client is and the way “sturdy” spending stays.
It might appear that individuals specific concern, nervousness, and considerations when surveyed about these things, however then behave in a different way. (Actually, survey information additionally bears this out, there’s a decoupling of perceptions in regards to the broader economic system versus their very own funds–and has been for just a few years.) In different phrases, this can be a non-factor…for now?
Starlight Delays
Then there’s theoretical delayed journeys for Starlight Evening Parade and/or Check Observe opening, just like the pre-Star Wars Hunch of 2019. I discover this to be implausible at scale. We’ve seen nothing to point a significant variety of friends postponed journeys within the lead-up to Guardians of the Galaxy: Cosmic Rewind or TRON Lightcycle Run, nor had been there noticeable spikes after these debuted.
They had been, basically, non-factors. That is truly an attention-grabbing subject in and of itself (one among my theories is that the complexity of accessing new points of interest has given friends chilly ft about planning round them), however past the scope of this publish.
Actually, I wouldn’t be stunned Walt Disney World noticed a much bigger bump this vacation season or in early 2026 on account of Epic Universe (friends “ready out the crowds” + “rising tides” thesis) than they’ll from any of their very own upcoming choices. And even then, I don’t assume the (optimistic) Epic impact will probably be all that significant.
Shifting Schedules
Again once we first tackled this subject in 2017, shifting schedules was provided as one rationalization–extra colleges switching to year-round calendars with longer breaks all year long. I used to be considerably dismissive, as that was not a sudden prevalence that started in the previous couple of years. Faculty calendars have been trending this manner for a decade or extra.
I’m way more receptive to this rationalization now. Actually, I’d go so far as to say that that is the darkish horse candidate that most likely isn’t given sufficient credit score. Summer time is probably the most handy time for many households to go to on account of college breaks. That is the rationale for summer season being the height vacationer season within the first place. For many years, summer season has seen sustained crowds at nearly each vacationer vacation spot, for that very motive.
Nonetheless, we might posit that this issues much less and fewer within the post-COVID local weather. After prolonged stretches out of college, households are much less “afraid” to tug their youngsters out of college for trip. Not all households and even most households, however simply sufficient to maneuver the needle. Anecdotally, we’ve heard from increasingly more readers who do precisely this. We are able to’t again it up with onerous stats, but it surely passes the odor check and appears extremely believable to us.
Equally as vital given the rise of the childless Disney Grownup as a core demographic for Walt Disney World is the hybrid work/play journeys. Though many People have confronted return to workplace mandates, distant work remains to be a viable possibility for a lot of, giving rise to a brand new technology of digital nomads.
As individuals who did this lengthy earlier than it was normalized by COVID, we’ve noticed this in a lot of locations we frequent. It was once the case that extra fascinating “low season” dates had been cheaper and fewer busy; however now, phrase has gotten out and numbers have leveled out. An illustrative instance of that is winter crowds at Walt Disney World, which proceed to extend comparatively. That’s additionally what makes this the very best rationalization, in our view, because it exhibits the redistribution of attendance in motion.
Excessive Warmth & Humidity
Summer time being unbearably sizzling and humid in Central Florida is just not a latest growth, so this shouldn’t be a year-over-year non-factor. Nonetheless, the previous couple of summers have been particularly brutal and that has garnered headlines. The Orlando space has seen record-setting highs on a number of events, wirth temperatures persistently within the 90s, with “appears like” temperatures effectively above 100º.
Based on the corporate, climate is the overriding issue in the summertime slowdown. It was such a sizzling subject a pair years in the past that it drew an evidence from CEO Bob Iger, who attributed the slowness to an exhaustion of pent-up demand and unseasonably unhealthy climate, even by summer season in Orlando requirements. On subsequent earnings calls, the CEO or CFO have talked about Florida climate on just a few extra events.
It’s not simply Disney, both. In its quarterly and annual factors, OLC (the proprietor and operator of Tokyo Disney Resort) has repeatedly pointed to climate as the first motive for decrease attendance. Provided that OLC is extra clear about its numbers–and doesn’t have an enormous portfolio of parks to cloud the outcomes–this rationalization strikes us as believable. That is taking part in out once more in Summer time 2025, with the final two months being the slowest stretch at Tokyo Disneyland since final August.
In relation to climate, the large wild card now’s consciousness. The web continues to interrupt down boundaries, and what was once an abstraction within the textual content of assorted books and sources is made plainly seen and offered in additional colourful methods. It’s one factor to examine excessive warmth in Birnbaum’s, it’s one other fully to see your favourite vlogger sweat their method round World Showcase. The previous you is perhaps extra prone to dismiss, questioning simply how unhealthy it might be. The latter is way more vivid–a tangible cautionary story.
Add to that the aforementioned willingness to tug youngsters out of college, and there’s a situation the place households have elevated data coupled with decreased incentive to go to in the summertime. Others who’re reluctant or unable to skip college would possibly merely be extra inclined to go to throughout breaks.
This extends to Annual Passholders and locals. Floridians keep dwelling when the forecast turns unseasonably sizzling, humid or wet. A few of them would possibly bear the climate if Disney offers them a motive to take action, as was once the case with summer season celebrations. That hasn’t been true for just a few years, although. On prime of that, I’d hazard a guess that Central Florida’s rising transplant inhabitants is just not suited to summer season climate, and stays within the cooling consolation of air-conditioning throughout the summer season months (disproportionate to native Floridians).
This comfort-seeking habits additionally explains why appears like crowds or congestion are decrease throughout the summer season. Whereas within the winter friends would possibly wander round having fun with the environment of the parks, they search refuge indoors like heat-seeking missiles (besides in reverse). That truly might imply that wait instances are elevated relative to attendance throughout the summer season months. Anecdotally, I can say with full certainty that the parks typically look useless from June by way of September even when the wait instances don’t at all times mirror that.
Shorter Hours
I really feel like a damaged report about this, however again once we fell in love with summers at Walt Disney World, the hours had been longer. Though EPCOT and DAK are unchanged, Disney’s Hollywood Studios noticed later closings on Star Wars Weekends nights and Magic Kingdom was open till 11 pm or midnight each evening, with night Further Magic Hours till as late as 3 am.
With the ability to Park Hop to Magic Kingdom and keep as late as 3 am made the summer season warmth extra tolerable to plan round. We might begin early, take a noon break, after which return for ~6 hours after sundown. It made summers satisfying, and was a simple strategy to mitigate the excessive warmth.
Fortunately, Starlight will convey again these 11 pm closings, but it surely’s nonetheless perplexing that just one Walt Disney World theme park is at present open for an hour after sundown. There’s a motive why Prolonged Night Hours is a lot extra widespread throughout the summer season months, and Walt Disney World is aware of this. But, it looks like a vicious cycle for summer season park hours–with decrease crowds begetting shorter hours.
No Particular Occasions
Talking of particular occasions, one other issue is the dearth of particular occasions to prop up summer season numbers. That is considerably an outgrowth of climate, as a result of Walt Disney World merely can not schedule runDisney races or out of doors ESPN Broad World of Sports activities competitions in June or July. It’s seemingly that Disney Conferences and Fairytale Weddings sees an identical summer season slowdown.
It’s as soon as once more Weight-reduction plan EPCOT throughout the summer season, with that being telegraphed far prematurely for 2025. (Final 12 months, not less than there was the launch of CommuniCore Corridor.) To be truthful, there may be GoofyCore Corridor and Cool Child Summer time because the summer season push, however that’s largely advertising. It’s not just like the summer season ‘spectaculars’ of outdated, and I can not think about that an considerable variety of guests booked for the substance of Cool Child Summer time. (The reductions are a special story.)
All of that is exactly why we anticipated a brand new competition at EPCOT or a revival of Summer time Nightastic. Walt Disney World used to have blockbuster occasions that kicked off Memorial Day weekend, and made summer season an thrilling time to go to regardless of the climate. Perhaps we’ll see a return to that in 2026, as even aggressive reductions haven’t moved the needle a lot.
Minimal Mitigation
I additionally really feel like a damaged report about this, however Imagineering has seemingly constructed all of its latest expansions for the California local weather. Toy Story Land, Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge, World Celebration, and extra are completely depressing ~8 months of the 12 months. There’s little shade providing a strategy to escape the warmth or summer season showers.
It’s actually mind-boggling that Walt Disney World has not solely accomplished nothing by way of mitigation measures, however they’ve as an alternative actively constructed issues for a extra Mediterranean local weather. The preferred and latest areas of the parks–the locations folks spend a disproportionate period of time–being particularly disagreeable throughout the summer season has seemingly contributed to visitor perceptions that summers are much less comfy at Walt Disney World.
There are seemingly different variables I’m overlooking that would assist clarify why summer season attendance has been down. Different elements is perhaps at play, and in combination might have a noticeable affect, however I believe these variables can be one thing guests wouldn’t discover if it weren’t for the pricing, post-COVID schedule disruptions, and the climate.
Finally, it’s true that wait instances have been below-average to this point in Summer time 2025. Not fairly low season ranges however not even rising to reasonable. It’s additionally true that this isn’t a latest growth. Summer time being slower was the new-normal for just a few years pre-COVID closures, and that pattern has solely accelerated since. Judging by the wait instances we’re at present seeing, not even Walt Disney World’s lowest costs since not less than 2019 might reverse the pattern. It’ll be attention-grabbing to see which new levers they pull for 2026.
Earlier than you learn all of this and assume that summer season instantly seems like a good time to go to, uh, don’t. Should you beforehand dominated out a summer season trip to Walt Disney World, think about the likelihood that you simply did so for good motive. I’m not saying you’ll have a nasty time–as we regularly say, “a wet day at Walt Disney World is best than an ideal day at dwelling.” That’s true as at all times.
What I’ll say is that no matter “good points” you’ll expertise throughout summer season at Walt Disney World by advantage of objectively decrease crowd ranges and wait instances will probably be worn out by subjectively inferior the whole lot else. Should you compelled me to decide on between mid-June and mid-December, I’d select the latter with out hesitation. I’d take 5/10 crowds with nice climate and seasonal occasions over 1/10 crowds with depressing climate and nothing particular occurring. And it’s not even a remotely shut name. Judging by the entire above, it could appear that I’m removed from alone on this sentiment.
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Your Ideas
Do you agree or disagree with our evaluation as to why summer season crowds at Walt Disney World have been below-average? Or, do you disagree fully, and assume it’s been as busy–or busier–than regular? Any observations about attendance traits throughout the fall months that comply with this summer season dip? Listening to your suggestions about your experiences is each attention-grabbing to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas or questions under within the feedback!
